Reader zduckfan provided this summary of where Oregon stands in the computer polls used for the 1/3 of the BCS:
Jeff Sagarin (Elho_Chess numbers used by the BCS)
#1 Oregon 102.57 rating
#2 Alabama 99.52 rating
#3 Florida State 94.78 rating
Alabama #1 (300.71 rating)
Oregon #2 (295.06 rating)
Clemson #3 (292.31 rating)
Anderson Sports (after 5 weeks, prior to the Fuskies game)
Alabama #1 .834
Clemson #2 .828
FSU #3 .827
Stanford, Oklahoma, Georgia (all losers at 4, 5, and 6)
UCLA #7 .796, tOSU #8, Miami #9, and finally,
Oregon #10, .781
Colley Matrix, after week 7:
#1 Florida State .928
#2 Clemson .894
#3 Missouri .889
#4 Alabama .8689
#5 Oregon .8687
Massey Ratings after week 7:
#1 Oregon 2.62 rating
#2 Alabama 2.53 rating
#3 Florida State 2.36 rating
Dr. Peter Wolfe does not release numbers until next week.
zduck comments: "All in all, Oregon is highly ranked, perhaps enough that when you combine the BCS computers with the AP and USA Today numbers, Oregon may indeed be number 1. It matters not. Each game must be played, and each game must be won. Fun to see though."
Bama plays one more ranked team this regular season: LSU. We'll see how they handle Tennessee this weekend. Clemson plays 2 ranked teams in FSU this weekend and South Carolina in the final game. tOSU plays no ranked teams to finish their season. Ducks just handily beat a ranked Washington, and will play ranked UCLA, Stanford and possibly ranked OSU, even Utah to finish season. That's 3 to 5 ranked teams in final 7 games.
So, looking good. Only have to control what they can control - winning in superior fashion.
For additional background, here's the link to the rules used to produce the composite, official, BCS rankings that will be released soon. I've done some plinking around with the scores we know and guessed at the two we don't, just for fun.
Let's see how good my math is, and where the Ducks end up!
To get to the number the BCS uses, you need the computer scores from above, plus the Harris poll, and the USA Today Coach's Poll.
From the computer scores, you take the highest rating and lowest ranking of the 6 polls and discard them. Points are assigned to the remaining scores in an inverse order, 1-25. The four remaining scores are averaged, and the total is calculated as a percentage of 100. (I skip that part and just give whole, raw numbers.)
If your head doesn't hurt too much at this point and you still have lead in your pencil, do the other math (see below), add the Harris, the USA Today, and the computer scores together and divide by 3. The highest average ranks 1st. I'll do it off the top of my head, so if you are better with math, by all means, reply and correct me.
Given the numbers we know and taking some educated guesses from the two previous seasons, it looks like Alabama will have the edge because of the weight given to the Harris poll (2589 to 2501) and USA Today Coach's poll (1545 to 1485), or 2067 total to 1993 total after adding the totals and dividing by 2, yielding a 1,2 average (duh) in favor of Alabama. (They want us to convert to percentage of 100, I just want the result, so I took a shortcut.)
Now for the guess at the computers... Oregon has three 1st place totals, a 5th, and a 10th, and I'm guessing at changing one to a 1st and adding a 3rd. Why am I guessing that? Last season at week 8, prior to the Stanford game, Oregon had a composite average of 6 (6,3,6,8,6,10). Toss out the 6 and the 10, divide 23 (the sum of the four numbers left) by 4, you get about 5.75. They called it 6. For background, Wolf was the 10, Anderson the 3.
In 2012, Oregon began week 8 ranked number 4 (because of a higher ranking in the human polls.) Since Oregon performs much better in all polls known this year, I simply guessed Wolf at 3 and Anderson at a 1. Use your own numbers if you wish. It won't change the outcome much.
So, calling this season a 1,1,1,3,3,10, careful to drop the 1st and the 10th place, the remainder totals 8, divide by 4, which yields a 2. From our polls above, 2+2+2 / 3 = 2, or Oregon in 2nd place.
With the two first place polls for Alabama, their score of 2,1,1,4,2,1 would yield a 2, + 1(Harris) + 1 (USA Today) / 3 = 1st place. That is not the exact system the mathies will use (they'll correct me, you'll see) but we'll come up with the same results. Their number will look like Alabama (.9862) to Oregon (.9801).
Oregon will get a bump this week when the Anderson recalculates because of the big losers in the middle, and Oregon's victory over the Fuskies compared to the Furd/dawg result the week before.
Lastly, and most interestingly to me at least, Sagarin uses numbers based on strength of schedule to calculate the home advantage, or how to calculate the spread if Team A plays Team B at home. Oregon is +2.5 points over every team in the league, and only surrenders 1.5 points to Alabama if the game were played in Tuscaloosa... Interesting number.
Okay, no more math. Fuzzy or otherwise. Go Ducks! Win ONE DAY AT A TIME and forget this nonsense! Win out and Oregon WILL play for the National Championship.
@Duckbill Football algebra, at least where the computers are concerned, is pretty complex. Of all the silicon algorithms, I appreciate the Sagarin method the best because it actually ranks every schedule for every school you can think of and then uses those (pretty darned accurate) numbers when weighing each win or loss.
Like you, I have trouble envisioning a team complete enough to cover the entire field and shut down the Ducks for an entire game, or even a half. It can happen though.
I really don't think this year is about math. I think it's about chemistry, a subject the Ducks have earned an A+ in so far.
@zduckfan I am close to getting it, could you repeat this please?
I think I got one too many polls in there, but you get the drift. It's almost midnight, and math is hard! lol
@Duckbill @rgyle You speak the sooth. Utes should be feeling confident. But they have 2 of 3 games on the road before the Ducks in Eugene: @AZ and @SC, then ASU in SLC. If they have what it takes to win all 3, Autzen will be rockin' vs the likely ranked Utes.
Correction: Bama plays Tennessee after Razorbacks this weekend. The Vols have the Gamecocks at home this weekend.
Ok, so... Morning after update: If you want to get the hard math numbers, you would convert the poll results to an inverse order of 25 (so 1st place would be 25, 25th would be 1) and then divide by 25.
1st = 1.00 +
1st = 1.00 +
3rd = .9200 +
3rd = .9200 +
2nd in poll A = .96 +
2nd in poll B = .96
That equals 5.76. There are 6 data points, so now divide by 6, which equals an average of .9600 for the Ducks. Alabama (1,1,1,1,2,2) would equal .98667. So the same result, just more accurate than my clunky math above. All done. No mas mathnasium.
@zduckfan Thanks for all hard work on this....