| 26 December 2011
Wisconsin is a good, solid football team with many weapons. But the good news is they don't have the physical, overpowering defensive line that Auburn or Ohio State had. It's a much better matchup for the Ducks.
They will still have to play very well to win.
photo left: Darron Thomas needs to be accurate and effective against an exploitable Wisconsin secondary next week, or the Ducks will struggle to sustain their offensive tempo.
Ideally, Oregon needs to find its rhythm early and avoid a situation where the Badgers get out quickly and have the opportunity to pound the ball inside, wearing down Nick Aliotti's defense. Against Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship game, Wisconsin opened the contest with five straight gives to their All-American tailback Montee Ball, marching straight down the field, Ball gaining 53 yards before Spartan fans had time to bite into the pulled pork sandwich. Quarterback Russell Wilson mixed in a couple of deftly thrown slant passes, his receivers making strong catches in traffic, and the Badgers had a too-easy score, 71 yards in nine plays.
Wisconsin got up 21-7, benefitting from a fumble kickoff return for a short field. That's one thing the Ducks absolutely have to avoid, gift touchdowns and unearned extra possessions for their Big Ten opponent. In a bowl game the quicksand factor is high. A team simply can't afford to manufacture opportunities for their opponent. De'Anthony Thomas, Oregon's dazzling freshman all-purpose All-American, has to be on watch: Badger coaches and players certainly studied copious amounts of film this month, and while they no doubt noticed Thomas' 16 electrifying touchdowns, they also were sure to notice the Webfoots 12 lost fumbles, half of them by The Black Momba. Whether it's technique, running style or bad luck, the slightly-built but hugely talented tailback/receiver/returner has to be counted on to find running room and hold on to the football. He's a big part of Oregon's edge in this game.
In the Big Ten Championship Game momentum shifted. Michigan State went on a run to make it 29-21 at half, missing a long field goal as time ran out. They gashed the Wisconsin defense with quick runs and short passes, hooks, slants and quick routes to the sideline. MSU's Kirk Cousins is a precise and accurate quarterback, and his receivers helped him out with some studly catches in traffic. Oregon will need effectiveness in the passing game to win the Rose Bowl. They'll move the ball on the ground, but the Wisconsin coaches and their defense will commit hard to stopping the run in an attempt to put the game in Darron Thomas' hands. Thomas and his receivers have to deliver.
On defense, Wilson and Ball are a formidable combination. Ball has tremendous vision, the quickness to exploit small creases, the power to turn four yards into eight and twelve. Russell Wilson completed 72.5% of his passes this season, averaging over 10 yards per attempt, but opponents did get to him for 20 sacks. The Ducks high-energy, blitzing, stunting attack led the entire nation this season with 45 sacks. To have success against Wisconsin and earn some stops, Oregon needs to get pressure on the senior quarterback, while maintaining containment. He's very athletic, excellent at creating out of the pocket. He's smart too, having thrown only three interceptions all year.
Oregon should have the speed and multiplicity to win this game, but it's a terrific matchup. Both schools have played well all year and feature some of college football's most brilliant stars. This game could very well be a far more entertaining and well-played contest than the National Championship. The prize is certainly big enough. The Ducks haven't been Rose Bowl Champions since 1917, and winning this one puts them in the preseason Top Five for next season. Chip Kelly would say that doesn't matter but it does. Beat Southern Cal, and Oregon becomes the West Coast frontrunner for the 2013 BCS title game.
KVAL's Dirk Weishaar had this feature on one of the critical confrontations of this game, Oregon's secondary versus the Wisconsin passing game:
